This is a multi-agent crisis simulation of a naval confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz. Two AI commanders — an IRGC Navy admiral and a Coalition CENTCOM admiral — play 40 turns of asymmetric naval coercion while real economic models track the global consequences of every decision they make.
It is not a board game skinned with AI. The agents receive briefings, issue structured orders, validate legality, negotiate via diplomatic signals, and manage escalation — while an independent merchant fleet of NPC cargo ships makes its own risk-based routing decisions based on perceived threat, insurance costs, and fleet confidence.
The simulation produces seven distinct outcome types, from restored passage to full regional war, graded by a deterministic evaluation system that accounts for transit throughput, toll revenue, escalation trajectory, diplomatic momentum, and merchant confidence.
Each game runs 40 turns representing 20 simulated days, alternating day and night phases. Night turns degrade Coalition air superiority and give Iranian submarines a stealth bonus. The game starts at escalation 4/20 with Iranian forces controlling the northern approaches and Coalition forces staging from Fujairah and the carrier operating area.
Both commanders receive a filtered intelligence briefing each turn — not the true board state. Iranian submarines are nearly invisible. Fast attack craft blend into coastal clutter. Coalition destroyers, being large surface combatants, are always visible. This assessment fog means both sides are making decisions on incomplete information, and mistakes are plausible.
| Unit | Side | Role | Key Trait |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Attack Craft | IRGC | Swarm attacks, boarding | 3+ in one zone: +1 attack |
| Submarine | IRGC | Hidden threat | +1 attack at night, 85% concealment |
| Mine Layer | IRGC | Area denial | Invisible mines, 55% hit chance |
| FPV Drone Swarm | IRGC | Anti-air, harassment | Only unit that can target fighter jets |
| EW Jammer | IRGC | Electronic warfare | Degrades Coalition guided weapons in zone + adjacent |
| Coastal Missile Battery | IRGC | Shore defense | Immobile, high attack value |
| Destroyer | Coalition | Escort, patrol, combat | Workhorse — every mission uses one |
| Fighter Jet | Coalition | Air superiority | -1 to all Iran attacks (suspended at night) |
| Cruise Missile | Coalition | Precision strike | One-use, range 3 zones, targets units or infrastructure |
| Minesweeper | Coalition | Mine clearance | Essential for reopening mined zones |
Neither side controls the merchants. They are independent NPC actors — 5 ship classes (VLCC crude tankers, LNG carriers, container ships, product tankers, bulk carriers) from 11 flag states, each making expected-value calculations about how to transit the strait.
Every merchant evaluates four options: free transit (risky, no toll), pay the Iranian toll ($4M, safer), request Coalition escort (slow, binds a destroyer), or anchor and wait. Their decisions are driven by perceived threat — which is modulated by fleet confidence, a persistent score that drops with every boarding, seizure, and sinking.
The simulation tracks real market instruments that respond to crisis events. Oil prices spike with supply disruption and escalation. The Nikkei drops hardest (Japan imports 87% of its oil through the Gulf). Gold and Bitcoin surge as fear gauges. Saudi Tadawul rises as alternative suppliers benefit. Insurance tiers escalate from NORMAL through ELEVATED, HIGH, WAR ZONE, to SUSPENDED.
Games can start from historical market baselines (actual prices on a specific date) or today's prices, then diverge as the simulation's events take over. The after-action report compares simulated outcomes to real-world benchmarks — the 2008 oil record, the 2022 Ukraine invasion spike, the 2019 Aramco drone attack.
Games don't end in binary "win/loss." The outcome grading system evaluates the strategic texture of how the crisis resolved:
The economics are the real simulation. Most wargames model combat. This one models insurance markets, merchant confidence, oil futures, and diplomatic momentum. The military is the mechanism — the economics are the battleground.
Time is Iran's weapon. 20-turn games favor the Coalition. At 40 turns, Iran's coercion tools compound — toll revenue accumulates, confidence decays, insurance spikes, Japan burns reserves. The simulation captures what most wargames miss: that crises are won by the side that can sustain pressure longest.
The agents show their reasoning. Every turn, you see what each commander is trying to accomplish, what they're supporting, and what mistake they're trying to avoid. The decisions are the content — not just the outcomes.